8/26/18 - Iron Byron vs. Rhein Gibson

"The lowest golf score over an 18 hole course (male) is 55, and was achieved by Rhein Gibson at the River Oaks Golf Club in Edmond, Oklahoma on May 12, 2012. River Oaks course measures 6,700 yards with a par score of 71. Rhein's round included 2 eagles and 12 birdies, and the rest of the holes were par for the course." - Guinness Book of World Records.

I wonder how much lower an Iron Byron machine could shoot at the same course with the same equipment and average carry distances as Mr. Gibson?

An "Iron Byron" for non-golfers is a machine that swings the club the exact same way every time. Golf equipment companies use them to test clubs without bias as the machine eliminates variances in swing and clubface characteristics at impact. Even with a perfectly repeatable swing and no wind, there is still a small bit of variance in where the golf ball lands due to all sorts of variables:  

Left right dispersion from center line, assuming no wind:

100 yard wedge shot - 3-4 ft.
200 yard 4 iron shot - 8 ft.
260 yard driver shot - 12 ft.

Long/short dispersion from flag, assuming no wind:

100 yard wedge shot - 18 inches long or short
5 iron shot - plus or minus one yard
260 yard driver shot - plus minus two yards

*data from Golf Laboratories Inc. 

Anyways, If we were going to set up such an imaginary test as fairly as possible, it would probably go something like this:

1. Calibrate the machine to reflect Rhein's average trajectory, carry distance, and general shot shape for each club
2. Try to match weather and course conditions as closely as possible to the day 55 was shot
3. Aim the machine at a target as far as possible down the fairway on each hole. This would be a relatively conservative target where slight variances in ball flight/wind would not allow the ball to get into the rough
4. Aim the machine at target as close as possible to each pin without the risk of small changes in ball flight/wind allowing the ball to miss the green
5. Aim the machine at the best possible target to make each putt based on the ideal capture speed of the cup (usually 6-12" past hole) dictated by the speed of the greens. Interesting article on capture speed here

Based on the machine's dispersion outlined above, it seems reasonable to assume the machine could hit each fairway with a 280 yard drive, and the approach shots would probably go like this on average:

1. 157 yard approach within 6' of cup for birdie
2. 165 yard tee shot within 7' of cup for birdie
3. 228 yard approach within 18' of cup for eagle
4. 199 yard tee shot within 8' of cup for birdie
5. 129 yard approach shot within 6' of cup for biride
6. 225 yard approach within 18' of cup for eagle
7. 184 yard tee shot within 7' of cup for birdie
8. 112 yard approach shot within 5' of cup for birdie
9. 114 yard  approach shot within 5' of cup for birdie
10. 84 yard approach shot within 4' of cup for birdie
11. 275 yard approach shot within 20' of cup for eagle
12. 175 yard tee shot within 7' of cup for birdie
13. 262 yard approach within 18' of cup for eagle
14. 142 yard approach within 6' of cup for birdie
15. 126 yard approach within 6' of cup for birdie
16. 127 yard approach within 6' of cup for birdie
17. 185 yard tee shot within 7' of cup for birdie
18. 169 yard approach within 7' of cup for birdie

Robot putting is a bit more of a guess, but based on these PGA Tour average "One Putt Probabilities", we can assume the robot would do slightly better on average.

Maximum length putts facing Mr. Iron Byron and the expected (score for those holes):

1 within 4' for birdie (-1)

2 within 5' for birdie (-2)

5 within 6' for birdie (-3)

5 within 7' for birdie (-3)

1 within 8' for birdie (PAR)

3 within 18' for eagle (-4) 

1 within 20' for eagle (-1)

14 under (57) +/- a shot or two is what I'd guess Mr. Iron Byron would shoot at worst which makes Mr. Gibson's score even more amazing. Who knows what would actually happen and the machine could certainly go lower based on more optimistic proximities but my deeper point if you are still reading this is, why not at least try to set yourself up to play your next round of golf the same way the machine was:

1. Aim at a target as far as possible down the fairway on each hole. This is a relatively conservative target where slight variances would not allow the ball to get out of play
2. Aim at a target as close as possible to each pin than minimizes the risk of small changes allowing the ball to miss the green
3. Aim at the best possible target to make each putt based on 6-12 inches past the cup "ideal capture" speed